We enter 2023 with increasing pessimism about a slowdown in growth. Almost without exception all forecasts suggest that a global recession will take place. From a historical point of view this feels like the most announced recession ever.
This negative consensus is the outcome of a diverse set of trends that are coming together:
- The slowdown in Chinese growth through a combination of zero-COVID policies and set of structural weaknesses in its economy
- The effects of one of the largest energy-price shock the world has ever seen
- The instability caused by geopolitical tensions (the barbaric invasion of Ukraine by Russia or the increasing tensions between China and the US)
- The war on inflation that most central banks are fighting with higher interest rates
- The failure of technology to provide a sustainable basis for productivity growth
In this session, Antonio Fatas will provide an update on the state of the world economy with a focus on understanding these trends and how they will shape our future in 2023 and beyond.